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The author of the entry reported that African governments are launching their own rating agency, Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA). He wrote that it is set to end the "African premium" that policymakers attributed to the actions of Moody’s, S&P Global, and Fitch. He also mentioned that Ghana and Zambia argued regarding the rating downgrades. https://t.co/Ft0T18htHz #Afryka #Rating #Gospodarka #GH #ZM (translated)

It was stated in the announcement that Moody’s confirmed Croatia's credit rating of A3 last night, with stable outlooks, at an investment level. The author described the assessment as yet another confirmation of the actions of the Government of the Republic of Croatia during times of geopolitical uncertainties and external shocks. https://t.co/cpVEH4zthK #Hrvatska #kreditnirejting #investicije #HR (translated)

Moody's Agency has confirmed Croatia's credit rating of 'A3' with stable outlooks, emphasizing strong institutions and governance systems, but warning of risks related to rising expenditures and dependence on external demand, particularly due to concentration in tourism. #Hrvatska #kreditniRejting #NacionalniPlanOporavka (translated)

The rating agency Moody's sanction, expected on October 23, increases pressure, while the governor of the Bank of France, Emmanuel Moulin, expressed concerns this week in the Financial Times about the risk that France may be "strangled by interest rates." #Économie #Dette #CriseFinancière (translated)

Zbigniew Bogucki blamed Donald Tusk's government for the increase in debt servicing costs. He recalled that during the election campaign, Minister Domański had announced an increase in the government's credibility and a decrease in these costs, which at that time amounted to around 70 billion zlotys annually. Bogucki wrote that for the next year, 107 billion zlotys has been planned for debt servicing, which is 37 billion more. He compared this amount to the cost of purchasing dozens of Abrams tanks or building two permanent bases for American soldiers in Poland. He added that half of this amount, 18.5 billion zlotys, could correspond to the cost of one such base. The politician also attributed the downgrade of Poland's rating by Moody's to the government, indicating that it was supposed to be the opposite. #Polska #finanse #dług (translated)

The author of the entry indicated that Moody's downgraded Poland's rating due to the state of public finances. He wrote that the agency noted the persistent high deficit, rising debt, and increasingly high servicing costs. According to the forecast he cited, the public finance sector deficit is expected to be around 7 percent of GDP in 2026 and 2027. #PL (translated)

The author wrote that Moody's downgraded Poland's rating to A3, equating it with the ratings of Fitch and S&P. According to him, the agency pointed out the deficit and debt, as well as political barriers hindering their reduction. The author added that the draft budget for 2027 assumes 695 billion PLN in revenues and mentioned presidential vetoes regarding increases... #Polska #finanse #rating #PL (translated)

The author wrote that Moody's downgraded Poland's rating to A3, aligning it with the ratings of Fitch and S&P. According to him, the agency pointed out in its justification the deficit, debt, and political barriers hindering their reduction. The author added that the budget for 2027 assumes 695 billion zlotys in revenue and mentioned presidential vetoes regarding increases. #rating #Polska #budżet #PL (translated)

The author wrote that Moody’s justified the downgrade of Poland's rating by the state of public finances, pointing to a persistent high deficit, increasing debt, and rising costs of servicing that debt. According to the agency's forecast, the deficit of the public finance sector is expected to amount to about 7 percent of GDP in 2026 and 2027. #Polska #finanse #deficyt #PL (translated)

Mr. Cezary Krysztopa assessed that Karol Nawrocki stepped back to encourage Donald Tusk to show how he intends to lower fuel prices. He claimed that Tusk did not need the president's signature to reduce VAT and excise tax, and that a drop in prices could also be achieved by limiting Orlen's margins. Krysztopa questioned the connection between the “excess profits” law and fuel prices and called it unconstitutional. He warned that companies could pass its costs onto customers. Referring to explanations that high fuel prices were a result of Trump's war with Iran, he admitted that the conflict had raised wholesale oil prices but pointed out that they were higher when Tusk spoke of gasoline at 5.19 PLN per liter. According to Krysztopa, wholesale prices were currently lower. The author accused Tusk of avoiding information about the budget's state and attributed the catastrophe of public finances to him. He cited the downgrade by Moody’s, which he described as the first in over twenty years, and claimed that the decline in tax revenues was due to tolerance of VAT fraud and abuse in the fuel market. Krysztopa predicted that the announced price reduction would amount to about one zloty, after which prices would rise again, and later there would be a lack of funds for further actions. He also criticized Tusk's supporters for their joy over PiS's political defeat, using vulgar terms towards them, and expressed hope for a way out of the current situation. #Polska #paliwo #Tusk (translated)

I understand that you are not an economist, but after all, you have an entire army of "advisors" at your disposal... Because this is no longer information relayed by Moody. This is your RHETORIC. Just like with the debt. "In four years, the government increases debt by a trillion." The thing is, four years have not yet passed 🤷‍♂️ You are already linking the executed debt with a FUTURE FORECAST and then dividing that amount by the number of residents, announcing that a newborn has "26 thousand zł of debt." How do you come to such absurd conclusions?? I won't say it's not impressive... But public debt is not a personal obligation that is assigned to a child's account. And then there's the Constitutional Tribunal. You sign a law, still consider it unconstitutional, and send it to the Tribunal. The same Tribunal that the ECtHR has found to violate the right to a court set by law in the Xero Flor case, and the Grand Chamber of the CJEU in case C-448/23 stated that it does not meet the requirement of an independent and impartial court due to serious irregularities concerning its composition. And just minutes earlier, you said: "I'm not looking at legal loopholes." The Constitution and the legality of state organs are not "legal loopholes," Mr. Guardian of the Constitution 🤦‍♂️ And in the end, you say that you don't want "constant political war"... After a speech in which words fall: - blackmail, - the government’s ATM, - the government's financial catastrophe, - the prime minister's political plan and unsubstantiated claims that the government deliberately maintains high fuel prices to profit from them. I won't judge intentions. I assess the content. And the content of the official statement by the person holding the highest office in the state should withstand confrontation with documents 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ Here - in many key areas - it does not withstand. I will no longer dwell on this speech, as I believe it is a waste of time. I'll just say this. I don't know who prepared this text for you. However, I do know that you read it, you delivered it, and you take responsibility for every word. And you repeated nonsense and manipulations that have long circulated in the statements of people from your Chancellery — which I have already corrected multiple times. The worst part is that many of them don't even take long to verify. You just need to open the documents from your own Chancellery. I really don't envy you. It only pains me your slogan: "First Poland, first Poles." Because Poland and Poles should truly come first - even before political interests, party narratives, and the need for another conflict. You cannot appeal to the good of citizens while simultaneously playing with their trust in the state, providing them from the highest office with half-truths, insinuations, and political assessments cloaked as facts. This is not about whether someone likes this government. It's about accountability for words. Especially from this office 🫣 #Polska #Polityka #Ekonomia (translated)

Mr. Nawrocki, Unfortunately, I listened to this hmmm "message" and checked it against the documents. And, as usual, I have a problem. A big one. Because when you set aside the gestures, the teleprompter, and the political phrases, what remains is a series of facts mixed with half-truths, altered chronology, forecasts presented as certainties, and accusations that are not even confirmed by the documents of your own Office and a mass of other manipulations. Step by step. "The campaign promise of fuel at 5.19." No. Mr. Donald Tusk’s specific statement about 5.19 PLN was made in JUNE 2022. Parliamentary elections were scheduled for August 8, 2023. Only then did the election campaign begin in the sense of the Electoral Code. But it gets much more interesting with your quote... In the message, you connected 5.19 PLN, "one simple decision," and... a VAT reduction 🤦‍♂️ However, in the original statement about 5.19, Tusk talked about the MARGINS of Orlen and Lotos. And in a later statement about "one decision," he also talked about limiting Orlen's profits. Not about VAT! 🤦‍♂️ You are manipulating the Prime Minister's statement, and you are using the institution of the Address to the Nation for that... Exactly the same version about VAT was spread by Mr. Bogucki in the morning, but in his case, nothing surprises me anymore. A coincidence? Let’s move on. You claim that your project would cause "an immediate drop in fuel prices of over 2 PLN." Meanwhile, your OWN justification explicitly states that the mechanism DOES NOT START when the law comes into force. First, specific market conditions must occur. Then the Council of Ministers MAY issue a regulation. Only then does the mechanism begin to work. Where is the "immediate" here? Did you read your "own" project? Or are you just repeating this nonsense from Mr. Przydacz? Moreover, earlier materials from KPRP talked about an ESTIMATE of 1.70–2.60 PLN 🤦‍♂️ In the address, the estimate has already turned into a guaranteed effect 🤦‍♂️ Next, you say that the project is "good for the budget"... Meanwhile, your own justification predicts a loss of up to 600 million PLN just from the retail sales tax and further, unestimated costs of any potential excise tax reduction. I ask again - did you read your own project? Because you probably didn’t write it manually... Even more interesting. In the address: "The government bears full responsibility for fuel prices." In the justification of your project: market disruptions have an "objective character and are independent of entrepreneurs and the government".... So please decide. Full responsibility of the government or factors independent of the government? Because both versions cannot be true at the same time 🤦‍♂️ "The Marshal of the Sejm freezes the project." The project was submitted on September 18. On the same day, it was directed to the Legislative Office and BEOS. Then for opinions and consultations. Moreover, KPRP talked about the possibility of "freezing" as early as September 17 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ THE DAY BEFORE THE PROJECT WAS SUBMITTED TO THE SEJM! So first, a narrative about freezing was created, and only later did the Marshal receive the bill 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ Are you communicating with the rest of the "experts" in your office?? Next, we hear that the government deliberately keeps prices high because it wants to profit from VAT and dividends from Orlen. Proof? None was provided! A higher price may mean higher nominal VAT revenues. Orlen can pay dividends to shareholders. But one does not imply the other: this is NOT proof that the government deliberately keeps fuel prices high. This is attributing a motive without providing evidence 🤦‍♂️ Then you sign the law and say: "Every zloty obtained from this law must be spent on reducing fuel prices." A moment earlier, you conceded that the law DOES NOT CONTAIN a mechanism for passing that money on to reduce prices 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ Exactly. So it "mustn't." This is your political demand, not the legal effect of the signed law 🤷‍♂️ Moody’s? Yes. Here, the fact is a fact: Poland's rating was lowered from A2 to A3. But why was there no information that at the same time, the outlook was changed from negative to STABLE? Why does the rating decision then create a vision that "tomorrow there may not be enough for pensions and armaments"? #Polska #Polityka #Fakty (translated)

Dziś rząd przyjął ostateczną wersję budżetu na rok 2027. W skrócie - czeka nas potężne zderzenie z górą lodową deficytu. 🚢🧊📈 Przypomnijmy najważniejsze fakty⤵️ 🟥 Deficyt sektora finansów publicznych: Prognozowany na poziomie 7,1% PKB (trzeci rok z rzędu na wysokim poziomie, przekraczający kryteria z Maastricht). 🟥 Obsługa długu publicznego: koszt szacowany na 107 mld zł rocznie. 🟥 Rentowność obligacji: przewidywany wzrost rentowności polskich 10-letnich obligacji skarbowych powyżej 6%. 🟥 Nierealne założenia makroekonomiczne: podważenie prognoz dotyczących inflacji (ze względu na kryzys paliwowy i czynniki geopolityczne), wzrostu gospodarczego oraz dynamiki inwestycji. 🟥 Problemy z dochodami podatkowymi: 🔻Załamanie wpływów z podatku VAT (szacowana możliwa do uszczelnienia luka na 30–40 mld zł). 🔻Luka w podatku akcyzowym szacowana na ponad 10 mld zł. 🔻Brak skutecznego opodatkowania zagranicznych korporacji (CIT). 🟥 Skupmy się się na skutkach tej ruiny Tuska dla portfeli Polaków. 🟥 Pierwszym z nich było obniżenie ratingu przez agencję Moody’s. To co udało się Domańskiemu w sierpniu, kiedy uniknął cięcia ratingu przez agencję Fitch dzięki ogłoszeniu podwyższenia drugiego progu podatkowego połączonego z podwyżkami m. in. CIT i zmianami w ryczałcie, Moody’s uznało za działania dalece niewystarczające, szczególnie w obliczu sceptycyzmu Pałacu Prezydenckiego wobec propozycji rządowych. 🟥 Negatywne konsekwencje rynkowe nie ujawnią się w ciągu miesiąca czy kwartału, lecz w perspektywie 12-18 miesięcy (czyli po wyborach). To jawna gra ministra finansów mająca na celu przedkładanie celów politycznych nad stabilność długoterminową. 🟥 W roku 2027 dług krajowy przekroczy 55% PKB, co w kontekście budżetu na rok 2029 będzie oznaczało szereg bolesnych dostosowań fiskalnych: 🔻zakaz uchwalania budżetu z deficytem, na kolejny rok, 🔻zamrożenie płac w budżetówce, 🔻ograniczenie waloryzacji emerytur i rent, 🔻ograniczenia dla samorządów, 🔻zakaz udzielania nowych poręczeń i gwarancji przez Skarb Państwa. 🟥 Wszystko to uzupełniają rosnące obawy inflacyjne i prognozy podwyżek stóp procentowych przez NBP. Bez wyraźnej korekty cen na stacjach paliw należy spodziewać się istotnego wzrostu inflacji - wrześniowa przebije 4% r/r. W kolejnych miesiącach inflacja może przekroczyć nawet 5% r/r a w całym 2027 będzie wyższa niż 3,5%. 🟥 Ekonomiści Pekao SA spodziewają się w najbliższych kwartałach nawet 3 podwyżek stóp - łącznie o 75 punktów bazowych. Z kolei ekonomiści banku ING wskazują, że kontrakty FRA 12x15 (przewidujące wysokość stóp za 12 miesięcy) wynoszą obecnie niemal 5,20%, co oznacza, iż niewiele dzieli go od wycenienia zacieśniania monetarnego rzędu 150 pb w rok. 🟥 W jednym minister Domański ma rację. Cytując jego słowa „Polska nie ma możliwości zwiększania wydatków publicznych przed przyszłorocznymi wyborami, a polityka fiskalna jest wyzwaniem dla rządu”. To zawoalowana parafraza „pieniędzy nie ma i nie będzie”. A po nich? Choćby potop… #budżet2027 #deficyt #finansepubliczne