Furkan Yildirim

Furkan Yildirim asked why Wall Street professionals are currently preparing for a potential severe stock market crash, in his view, even though the S&P 500 is just below its record. He cited data such as the Skew Index and pointed out that hedge funds are positioned defensively according to Goldman Sachs as they have been for years. In six weeks, S&P 500 futures worth $63.7 billion have been sold; at the same time, there are record bets on falling prices for small US stocks. There is particular demand for protection against extreme cases. Yildirim announced a macro deep dive with 20 charts from Goldman Sachs, BofA, Deutsche Bank, and TS Lombard. In it, he wants to address market positioning, possible parallels to 1987, 1994, 2000, or 2023, three scenarios weighted by him, and possible consequences for gold and Bitcoin. He asked whether he should record the video on the same day. #Marktanalyse #Investment #Wirtschaft (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the US Treasury could auction fewer long-term government bonds as early as November and possibly discontinue the 20-year term altogether. According to Yildirim, Citigroup expects Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to announce a $3 billion reduction in auctions for 20- and 30-year bonds each on November 4. The financing gap is to be closed with government securities maturing within a year at the latest. The department may also ask large banks next week whether pension funds now prefer bonds from Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet to those of the state. The 20-year bond was reintroduced in 2020 after a 34-year hiatus and now offers nearly 5.7 percent interest, more than any other US maturity. At the end of 2020, its yield was just under 1.5 percent. At the same time, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and SpaceX had already issued dollar bonds amounting to more than $180 billion in 2026; according to Yildirim, Amazon's bonds extend to 2076. According to asset manager TwentyFour, which Yildirim cited, Japanese investors are now receiving enough interest at home to invest their money there. Citi strategist Jason Williams wrote that pension funds may currently be more inclined than usual to invest in long-term corporate bonds of good quality. However, BNP Paribas strategists doubted that smaller auctions would reduce the government's financing costs. Yildirim also pointed out that the yield on 10-year US bonds serves as a basis for mortgages and many other loans, and Bessent had referred to it as an important measure of his success. With an annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion, the debt burden continues to grow as competition for long-term buyers increases. #Finanzen #Anleihen #Wirtschaft (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that US consumer inflation expectations had risen to 3.9 percent, reaching the highest level since May 2023. A month earlier, they had been at 3.6 percent. For the next twelve months, Americans expected price increases of 9.2 percent for medical costs, 7.5 percent for education costs, 6.8 percent for rents, 5.5 percent for food, and 4.8 percent for gasoline. Wages were expected to rise by only 2.6 percent during the same period. At the same time, households planned to spend 5.5 percent more – the highest figure since May 2023. Their income was only expected to grow by 3.1 percent, according to Yildirim. He also wrote that more households reported a worse financial situation than a year ago and that loans were harder to obtain. Prices were outpacing wages, he summarized. #Inflation #Wirtschaft #Verbraucherpreise (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the Bitcoin correction has occurred and many are now getting nervous again. He referred to a post from September 21, in which he explained that for him, it is not crucial which price level is exceeded, but how the next correction will unfold. Now it is what matters. #Bitcoin #Korrektur #Kryptowährung (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that, according to recent reports, SpaceX intends to borrow 40 billion dollars to purchase Nvidia chips. Nvidia itself holds around 123 million SpaceX shares and is simultaneously building a 500-billion-dollar platform with six major financial institutions that offers loans to customers for Nvidia chips and guarantees part of it. Yildirim described this as a circular flow of money. According to the Financial Times, 10 billion dollars of the SpaceX deal should come from bank loans and 30 billion from bonds. Apollo is supposed to lead it, which according to Yildirim is also one of the partners of Nvidia's platform. When SpaceX was looking for investors, they received a two-page memo with space images describing the data centers as being located in an unspecified place in space. An investor reportedly asked, according to the Financial Times, how he should explain that to his investment committee. Yildirim also pointed to skepticism in the bond market: SpaceX sold bonds worth 25 billion dollars in June; the bonds, maturing in 2056, are currently trading at around 85 cents on the dollar and have a risk premium at junk bond levels. SpaceX reported losses of 4.9 billion dollars in 2025 and 4.28 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Nevertheless, the company is officially considered an investment-worthy debtor at the second worst level of this category. According to Yildirim, this classification allows insurers and pension funds to purchase bonds on a larger scale. Apollo's life insurer Athene typically takes a large share in such deals. As further evidence of the development, Yildirim cited information from Goldman Sachs, indicating that by 2026 about 500 billion dollars in AI-related debt had already been taken on. By the end of the year, the bank expects more than 750 billion dollars and nearly 1.2 trillion dollars for 2027. According to the Financial Times, Nvidia also negotiated with insurers at the end of September about the transfer of default risks related to chip loans. Yildirim wrote that the investment boom is increasingly being financed through debt and referred to a detailed video on the topic published the previous day. #SpaceX #Nvidia #Finanzen (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that his video about a possible "Euro crisis 2.0" as well as the interest and debt crisis had reached many viewers and had been among the most widely viewed in recent weeks. However, all of a sudden, it is hardly being displayed anymore. He asked whether YouTube had restricted its visibility and said he had never experienced anything like this on his channel. Yildirim requested to share his post and the video. https://t.co/f9p3N0TYC9 #Eurokrise #YouTube #Finanzen (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the euro crisis has returned and is now affecting France. The second-largest economy in the Eurozone has about ten times as much debt as Greece did in 2010. France is now paying more interest than Italy, the risk premium is at its highest level since 2012, and the insurance against a French state bankruptcy has more than doubled within a month, he pointed out. He also referred to burning trash cans in the streets and demands for a debt cut. Yildirim said he had invested a lot of time in a new macro deep dive with nearly 30 charts and graphs, as well as data from 2011 to the present. In it, he claims he wants to address the repetition of the 2011 pattern, past and current ECB decisions, the demand for a debt cut, possible bailout measures or a state bankruptcy, as well as consequences for savings. He also wants to explain what he himself is making of the situation. He asked if he should record the video on the same day. #Eurokrise #Frankreich #Schulden (translated)

The US inflation has fallen overnight by 0.3 percentage points. Not a single price has decreased because of this. The calculation method has changed, retroactively to 2021. For July, the US statistics agency previously reported a core inflation of 3.3% (excluding energy and food), now it shows 3.0%. For August, 3.0% was recorded, although economists had expected 3.3%. On paper, this is a clear decline. Three areas were adjusted: software, legal consulting, and asset management. The last one best illustrates the problem. An advisor charges a 1% fee on your portfolio. If the stock market rises by 20%, you pay 20% more in dollars, even though he has never raised his rate. Statistics had previously counted this as a price increase. In May, this inflation was at 21.6%; using the new method, it would be 14.3%. The Canadian bank RBC estimates that the new method alone pushes core inflation down by about 0.18 percentage points, mainly due to software. A large part of today’s decline is thus purely a matter of calculation. Even on Wall Street, the number is read cautiously. BNY strategist John Velis advises treating any softer value after the adjustment as a statistical correction. His conclusion: less noise, the same amount of inflation. Why this matters: Two weeks ago, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 to 3.75% to 4.00%. 16 out of 18 members expect another increase this year. This inflation figure is what decides that and it impacts credit rates, mortgages, and the direction of stocks and Bitcoin. On paper, inflation has decreased today. At the supermarket checkout, however, no one notices anything. If you are interested in such macro insights and they help you, feel free to interact with the post. 🧡 #Inflation #USMarkt #Wirtschaft (translated)

Meine Timeline ist gerade voll mit „Top 5 Altcoins für den Bullrun". Mein Postfach ist gleichzeitig voll mit Anfragen von Krypto-Projekten. Alle im Prinzip gleich: Ich bekomme unmoralische Angebote und Coins obendrauf, wenn ich sie meiner Community vorstelle. Zwei Dinge, die zeitgleich passieren. Reiner Zufall, oder? #Krypto #Altcoins #Bullrun

Gerade gemeldet: Bitget CEO bestätigt Hack und der Schaden ist mit über $350 Mio. größer als angenommen. Sie haben Rücklagen in Bitcoin in Höhe von etwa $464 Mio. in BTC. Das heißt sie müssten wahrscheinlich diese verkaufen, um die Kundengelder zurückzuzahlen. #Bitget #Krypto #Hacking

🚨BREAKING: Bitget wurde offenbar gehackt: Über $174.000.000 USD fließen gerade aus den Börsen-Wallets ab. Zahlreiche On-Chain-Accounts sprechen von einem Hack. Die Arkham-Daten zeigen es in Echtzeit: ETH, USDT, USDC, BNB und AVAX, aus Hot- und Cold-Wallets, alles auf eine einzige Adresse, innerhalb einer Stunde. Eine Stellungnahme von Bitget gibt es bisher nicht. Ich würde sicherheitshalber Bestände von der Börse abziehen. Es gilt wie immer not your keys not your coins und Assets gehören auf die Hardware Wallet. Ich würde sicherheitshalber Bestände von der Börse abziehen. Es gilt wie immer not your keys not your coins und Assets gehören auf die Hardware Wallet. Und im kleineren Fall, wenn nur euer Konto übernommen wird, etwa nach Phishing oder einem SIM-Swap, gibt es bei den meisten Börsen gar keine Regelung dafür. Natürlich braucht man für das aktive Handeln Bestände auf einer Börse und nicht alles liegt auf einer Hardware Wallet. Falls jemand gerade eine Alternative sucht: OKX als regulierte Börse hat seit Dienstag eine Absicherung hinzugefügt: OKX Shield. Wer die geforderten Sicherheitseinstellungen aktiviert, kann bei einer Kontoübernahme durch Dritte eine Erstattung beantragen: 🔹 Reguläre Nutzer: bis zu 100.000€ 🔸 VIP 1 bis 3: bis zu 250.000€ 🔶 VIP 4 bis 6: bis zu 500.000€ Kein Abo, keine Zusatzgebühr. Shield startet nicht automatisch, ihr müsst es einmal selbst im Konto aktivieren. Hier registrieren und direkt nach der Verifizierung einschalten: https://t.co/YlOzZRBLJG (Partnerlink) #Bitget #KryptoSicherheit #Hacking

Bitcoin steigt und steigt und steigt: Nächste TP Order bei meiner Bitcoin Position getroffen 🎯 Soll ich euch weiter solche Updates zu meiner Position geben oder uninteressant? Ich komme eventuell heute Abend live und wir schauen uns gemeinsam die Marktlage an. https://t.co/GwoYhC2YWo #Bitcoin #Kryptowährung #Investieren

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Die USA sind der Bitcoin-Reserve per Gesetz einen Schritt näher. Der Finanzausschuss des Repräsentantenhauses hat heute den Entwurf H.R. 8957 weitergeleitet. Name: American Reserve Modernization Act, kurz ARMA. Was drinsteht: Beschlagnahmte Bitcoin werden nicht mehr versteigert. Sie wandern in eine Reserve des Finanzministeriums. 20 Jahre Haltefrist. Kein Verkauf. Kein Tausch. Regelmäßige Bestandsnachweise durch externe Prüfer. Also ein öffentlicher Beleg, dass die Coins wirklich da sind. Neue Käufe? Nur budgetneutral. Ohne neue Steuern, ohne neue Schulden. Finanz- und Handelsministerium sollen erst prüfen, wie das gehen könnte. Warum das zählt: Bisher existiert die Reserve nur per Dekret von Trump aus März 2025. Der nächste Präsident könnte sie mit einer Unterschrift wieder abschaffen. Bei einem Gesetz geht das nicht so einfach. Was jetzt ansteht: 1. Abstimmung im gesamten Repräsentantenhaus. Die Führung muss den Termin erst ansetzen. Bis zu den Midterms im November bleibt wenig Zeit. 2. Der Senat. Dort gibt es bisher keinen eigenen Entwurf dazu. Und es braucht 60 Stimmen. Mit Jared Golden ist zumindest ein Demokrat schon Mitautor. 3. Möglicher Umweg: Die Regeln könnten an das Verteidigungsbudget (NDAA) zum Jahresende angehängt werden. 4. Unterschrift des Präsidenten. Danach hat das Finanzministerium 180 Tage, um die Reserve aufzubauen. Heißt: Ein Ausschuss hat zugestimmt. Gekauft wurde dadurch noch kein einziger Bitcoin. Der Weg ist lang. Aber zum ersten Mal läuft er durch den Kongress. #Bitcoin #Kryptowährung #USA

Happy FOMC Day 🥳 Heute Abend wird’s spannend. Zinsanhebung scheint beschlossene Sache zu sein, aber es kommt heute vor auf andere Dinge an. Soll ich gleich mal einen Gameplan mit verschiedenen Szenarien in einem separaten Post auflisten und Prognosen dazu aufstellen, wie der Markt reagieren würde? Ab 19:30 Uhr bin ich spätestens wieder LIVE und wir begleiten das Ganze gemeinsam. Wer ist dabei? #FOMC #Zinsen #Marktanalyse

BREAKING: US-Senat stimmt GEGEN den Clarity Act. Die notwendigen 60 Stimmen sind nicht mehr zu erreichen. Damit dürfte das Thema zumindest vorerst vom Tisch sein #Bitcon #Krypto https://t.co/vRXfa26yHz #Krypto #Politik #USA