GeoTales described a scenario where several agricultural regions would be simultaneously affected, while dam production would decrease, trade routes would be disrupted, and populations would experience exceptional heat. It specified that the term "super El Niño" referred to an episode of about +2 °C or more in the Niño 3.4 area, without constituting a universal category comparable to that of cyclones. According to GeoTales, the bulletin published on October 8 by the World Meteorological Organization forecasted an average anomaly of about +3.7 °C in this area for the period from October to December, with a peak around December. It also reported that NOAA assessed the probability of reaching at least +2.5 °C over three months at 83% according to its RONI index, mentioning an episode likely to exceed those observed since 1950. It emphasized that the two agencies used different methods, but their figures indicated an exceptionally intense event. GeoTales explained that observations showed increased heat beneath the surface of the Pacific, a deeper thermocline, as well as anomalies in westerly winds and precipitation in the central and eastern parts of the ocean. It reminded that El Niño is a natural phenomenon and estimated that it would be too simplistic to attribute this episode solely to climate change, while adding that background warming could exacerbate its consequences. To illustrate the possible impacts, GeoTales mentioned Guatemala, citing a video published the day before by LIMIT Media. It wrote that in the "dry corridor" that also crosses Honduras and El Salvador, the lack of rain and crop losses were already undermining the food and income of families relying on maize and bean cultivation. #ElNiño #ChangementClimatique #Météo (translated)
