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Xico Graziano stated that electoral surveys reflected the days prior, and not the future scenario. According to him, at the beginning of the week, PoderData and Datafolha showed Flávio two percentage points ahead of Lula. Graziano said that Flávio received support from Zema, Caiado, and Cury, while Cleitinho, Tarcísio, and Moro mobilized in his campaign. He also stated that in Rio de Janeiro, the PL candidate was announced as the big winner. Regarding Lula, he wrote that he remained in Brasília reorganizing the campaign and that Janja faced criticisms both inside and outside the PT; in Graziano's assessment, there were no other relevant facts. Based on this, he evaluated that Flávio was gaining ground while Lula remained stagnant, and that the next surveys would reflect recent events. #Eleições2023 #PesquisaEleitoral #PolíticaBrasileira (translated)

The polls this year have a bias... What we are seeing in some polls in Brazil goes through a methodology called likely voters. Basically, the institutes try to estimate not only who the voter intends to vote for, but also the probability that this voter will actually show up at the polls. And here's an important point: Lula performs very strongly among lower-income voters, a segment that has historically been more prone to abstention. When this factor enters the model, the tendency is to reduce his advantage and create an appearance of greater closeness to Flávio. Does that make sense? More or less... The problem is that this type of methodology depends on something extremely difficult: predicting today who will effectively vote on Election Sunday. And 2026 may have a completely different dynamic from 2022. What we are seeing in terms of mobilization in the streets in favor of Lula, for example, is something that must be taken into account. Mobilization also affects the voter’s willingness to leave home to vote. Therefore, I have my doubts about to what extent this "likely voter" model will be able to accurately capture this election. The traditional method of voting intention has always worked in Brazil. In 2022, we had a very specific context, including PRF operations involving the transportation of voters that led the TSE itself to intervene during the second round. This needs to be remembered when someone tries to use that election as an absolute parameter to project abstention in 2026. So I would be very cautious with polls that try to turn voting intention into predictions of turnout. After all, polls measure intention. Who will or will not step outside on election day is a variable that is much more difficult to predict. #Eleições2026 #Voto #PesquisaEleitoral (translated)

🚨 URGENTE: Diego Muguet flagrou entrevistadores da DATAFOLHA realizando pesquisa ao lado de uma banquinha do PT e abordando pessoas que, segundo as imagens, seriam ligadas à esquerda. A situação é GRAVÍSSIMA. Como garantir a imparcialidade e a representatividade de uma pesquisa eleitoral nessas condições? CADÊ A TRANSPARÊNCIA, DATAFOLHA? https://t.co/GvsVGbvEh8 #PesquisaEleitoral #Transparência #Imparcialidade

Sam, você está discutindo o resultado da pesquisa, enquanto Kassio Nunes Marques está discutindo a metodologia, são coisas completamente diferentes. O TSE não suspendeu a pesquisa porque Flávio caiu ou porque Lula subiu, o TSE suspendeu a pesquisa porque existe um questionamento sobre a forma como ela foi construída. Esse é o cerne da questão. Se o áudio não influenciou ninguém, ótimo. Mas então por que ele estava na pesquisa?nE por que o único candidato submetido a um estímulo relacionado a um escândalo foi Flávio Bolsonaro? A discussão não é se o entrevistado podia ou não mudar o voto depois. A discussão é se uma pesquisa eleitoral pode utilizar elementos potencialmente prejudiciais a apenas um dos candidatos e ainda assim ser apresentada ao público como uma simples medição do cenário eleitoral. Repito: Nunes Marques não colocou o resultado sob escrutínio, colocou a metodologia. Percebe?? #PesquisaEleitoral #Metodologia #JustiçaEleições