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Pri described the movement on Polymarket as a strong setback and stated that Flávio Bolsonaro had risen to 87.9%, a jump of 23.9 points in one day, while Lula had fallen to 12%. According to Pri, the market was consolidating the advantage of bolsonarism and reducing the president's chances in the market in the final stretch. https://t.co/v0ydkc1KC5 #Política #Brasil #Bolsonaro (translated)

JH Fonseca stated that Flávio Bolsonaro had reached a 87% probability of being elected on Polymarket. He also said he believed that even members of the Workers' Party campaign were monitoring the tracking and betting on him. #FlávioBolsonaro #Eleições2024 #PolíticaBrasil (translated)

The French Mileists contested information that they claim was relayed by Le Canard enchaîné and several accounts on X, alleging that accounts linked to David Lisnard's campaign had bet on Polymarket to artificially inflate his chances. They stated that the bets against Lisnard were, on the contrary, very concentrated on a single account named LLamaLoco, which reportedly wagered more than 420,000 dollars against him. The largest bet in favor of Lisnard was said to be 18,000 dollars, which, according to them, represents a ratio of 25 to 1 in amount and 2.5 to 1 in the number of shares bought. They added that LLamaLoco also wagered 200,000 dollars against Marine Le Pen and 28,000 dollars on a victory for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and that Lisnard and Le Pen represented 70% of the current positions of the account on Polymarket. The account allegedly continued to bet against Lisnard and had been active for some time. The French Mileists stated that they do not draw any conspiracy-like conclusions from these elements but believe that, without these bets, Lisnard would be even higher. Finally, they indicated that Polymarket, on its site reserved for American citizens, estimated his chances of winning at 16%. #Politique #DavidLisnard #Polymarket (translated)

Rodrigo Constantino stated that Polymarket had performed much better than the polls in the first round, which, according to him, showed that the market was functioning. He said that the betting market assigned an 84% chance to Flávio's victory in the final result and predicted that Lula would be retired soon. https://t.co/r9FXrFSvt3 #Política #Eleições2022 #Apostas (translated)

The Trump supporter wrote that Flavio Bolsonaro had won by two points, with 99% of the votes counted: 47% compared to 45% for Lula da Silva. He noted that the second round would be in three weeks and described the result as the best possible scenario, almost unthinkable. He also indicated that Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the runoff. https://t.co/3QWoh02U27 #Elecciones2022 #Bolsonaro #Lula (translated)

Agustín Antonetti stated that all the polling companies in Latin America had failed and that Polymarket had once again been the only one to accurately predict the election results in Brazil. He also argued that traditional politics had been left behind and that open markets were the new way to analyze society. #Política #Encuestas #AméricaLatina (translated)

The French Mileists wrote that David Lisnard had reached a record on Polymarket, at 9.6%, while Édouard Philippe was declining and their curves might soon cross. The account presented Lisnard as the only serious alternative to Marine Le Pen, whom he described as "socialo-rightist," and estimated that Bruno Retaileau, then at 1%, had minuscule, if not zero, chances of winning. He called on the latter to withdraw and rally behind Lisnard. #Politique #Élections2023 #DavidLisnard (translated)