Michal Sirový 🇨🇿

Michal Sirový stated that according to him and polls most inclined towards Republicans, the upcoming Congressional elections predicted a Democratic victory in the Senate and problems for Republicans in states like Kansas. He added that this year the results from firms Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Insider Advantage, which he said had repeatedly been more favorable for Donald Trump and Republicans in the past, resembled other polls. He described this as one of the more significant signals that Republicans were facing serious issues. #midterms #politika #volby (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that, according to his calculation, a total of seven voters left the Pirates in Prague because of Mamdani. He questioned whether such a statement was meant seriously and wrote that voters often do not know the candidates or the general positions of the parties. He added that most people, in his opinion, do not know who Mamdani is, what he does or says, or how Czech parties express themselves about him. #politika #vnějšípolitika #volby (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that SPOLU could form a coalition with STAN in Prague, which he believes could govern either with SPOLU or with PS and the Pirates. He announced that he would present 13 reasons why SPOLU is in a better position than STAN and should obtain the mayoralty. In conclusion, he ironically remarked that he would like to ask to whom the invoice is being sent. #Praha #politika #SPOLU (translated)

Michal Sirový evaluated his prediction of the municipal election results in Prague and stated that it was successful, especially compared to the polls. He noted that the total error for the seven strongest parties was 11.8 percentage points, while IPSOS reached 20.5, SC&C 23.0, and Median 28.1. He added that the polls were collected about a month before the elections, which he stated partially explained their double error compared to his prediction. He identified his biggest mistakes as undervaluing STAN and overestimating ANO. According to him, he estimated the results for SPOLU, PS, and the Pirates almost precisely. In conclusion, he wrote that he hoped his election reporting entertained the readers. #volby #predikce #Praha (translated)

Michal Sirový estimated that ANO would gain at most two mandates in the second round, mentioning Přerov and Karviná as possible locations. He added that due to the expected lower turnout of already demobilized government voters, the party could end up without any mandate. #volby #ANO #politika (translated)

Michal Sirový congratulated Michal Škop and Datajournalist on their nearly live predictions for all senatorial districts and the largest cities. He stated that successful predictions can be made after counting just a few percent of votes or precincts. He criticized the media for continuing to debate the results, arguing that not enough votes have been counted, even though he believes that sufficient data is usually available during elections to estimate the final outcome. He added that the media, both commercial and public, should preferably publish timely predictions with a small margin of error rather than spend hours commenting on data corresponding to votes for parliamentary parties. #predikce #volby #žurnalistika (translated)

Michal Sirový asked whether the current opposition hopes are Grolich and Rakušan, and suggested that he would be interested in what Gazdík and Bělobrádek would say about it. He added that he believes he was not mistaken, just ahead of his time. https://t.co/s6A9pR776M #politika #opozice #ČeskáRepublika (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that when comparing the results of the ANO movement from 2022 with the predicted current results in regional cities, the average decline was 6 percentage points. According to him, the biggest drops were to occur in Ústí nad Labem and Zlín, while ANO was expected to gain only in Plzeň. He described the results as very poor. https://t.co/cRSTKu1Lo4 #ANO #politika #volby (translated)

Michal Sirový wrote that the government parties were losing due to the non-participation of their own voters. He stated that three surveys in Prague showed an average of 30% for the sum of ANO, SPD, and Motorists, while their actual share should have been only 20%, according to him. He characterized the result for the government parties as very poor. #volby #politika #průzkumy (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that STAN will gain a very strong position in Prague and will be able to form a coalition either with SPOLU or with Prague Sobě and the Pirates. He added that if Hlaváček were to seek the mayoral position, no one could take it away from him, according to him. #Praha #politika #Hlaváček (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that ANO in Prague was heading towards its worst result in municipal elections since its inception, while Motorists and SPD according to him remained below the five percent threshold. He described the result as an unfavorable report card for the government parties. https://t.co/PHv8oE6hj2 #Praha #volby #politika (translated)

Michal Sirový described this year's Pirate campaign as tragic and stated that in his opinion, the party chose the wrong female leader, which was confirmed by almost every one of her appearances. According to him, Zdeněk Hřib had the advantage of strong Pirates in 2018, while in 2022, he benefited from a good performance in the role of mayor, which was appreciated by a significant portion of people, despite the party being weak. According to Sirový, the Pirates are now weak, STAN has overall strengthened in four years and has shifted more towards liberal voters, and Praha sobě has a good and capable leader. Sirový expected that this combination would lead to a poor result for the Pirates the following day. #Piráti #politika #Praha (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that his estimate of the Prague municipal elections was more intuitive, as he did not have the capacity to focus on the elections this year. He expected the biggest difference compared to the polls in the results for the Civic Coalition and the Pirates. He predicted a catastrophic result for the Pirates and labeled the Prague himself campaign as successful; according to him, it was still unclear who would govern. https://t.co/BPHWVCS6Fj #volby #Praha #politika (translated)

Michal Sirový pointed out the differences in the number of passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants in European cities. He identified the differences between the former East and West as the most interesting, both in absolute figures and in development. https://t.co/q1meJq1pqC #automobilismus #Evropa #statistiky (translated)

Michal Sirový stated that a NY Times poll for the key Senate elections showed Talaric with a 6-point lead in Texas, which he said was almost at the margin of error. According to him, the lead in Alaska was significant. He added that the poll confirmed the results of other surveys from Kansas, according to which Democrats had a chance to win a Senate seat there for the first time since 1932. He described the situation as "a slaughterhouse." https://t.co/0d2pHyIwI4 #volby #senát #průzkum (translated)

The betting odds for Grolich's victory in the Senate elections are... 1.01 => essentially the same probability as that the sun will rise tomorrow. Of all the candidates from all the districts, he is the biggest favorite to win. He is literally the last one who needs to run a Senate campaign. 😀 #senát #volby #kandidát (translated)

Vláda připravila mamutí sekyru, tak se bude tradičně hledat 10 % úředníků na propuštění. ❤️ Těším se, že jednou přijde den a šetřící strana místo škrtnutí úředníků navrhne škrtnutí nějaké konkrétní agendy. Prostě stát přestane dělat X. Ale to je na nejen českou politiku asi moc vysoký požadavek... :-) #politika #úředníci #šetření