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The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck by David Spiegelhalter From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty Life is uncertain. We are all the result of an unforeseen and unforeseeable sequence of small occurrences. But what underlies this fragile chain of events? Is it random or just complex? And what role does luck play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data in order to help understand uncertainty and assess the chances of what might happen. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. Uncertainty, he argues, is a relationship between the observer and an object in the outside world. He shows us how we can express it numerically, and then update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. In crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change, while also examining the limitations of statistical modelling and arguing we need to have the humility to admit our ignorance. Drawing on a wide range of real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable.

Resni.ca noted that the article, in her opinion, again showed that they were right, and assessed that the Slovenian media are on par with the Colombian ones. She claimed that the media have been diverting attention from serious issues for half a year because they are looking for a scapegoat, and the reason for this is said to be money. According to Resni.ca, Stevanović paid the workers of the company where Mijič was employed, and he would also pay others if they were allowed to reach him. She also wrote that Stevanović demanded the return of that money from Mijič and the settlement of the remaining debts. Resni.ca stated that this year Stevanović called for the resignation of several MPs: Golob due to suspicion of corruption, Mesec for alleged ignorance while 200 workers were left without pay, and Levica due to allegations about a malfunctioning device of a female MP, which footage supposedly disproved since the MP did not vote at all. He allegedly called for Mijič's resignation multiple times, although he is said to have known that Mijič, in his opinion, is a product of the deep state's attack. She added that the same thing happened in this case as with others. https://t.co/lT1cQ8T4dS #mediji #korupcija #politika (translated)

The post’s author said it was “Orwell Day” in Münster, where NATO was being awarded the Peace Prize. They described NATO as the world’s largest military pact and called the award a farce, arguing that people were being asked to accept contradictions such as NATO representing peace. The author also shared a link they said outlined basic truths about NATO. https://t.co/JnM1alhVst #NATO #Frieden #Politik #DE #US

The author linked barbarism with ignorance and argued that Russia, as an aggressor state that violated international law, could not deny Ukraine the right to self-defence, including with weapons supplied by countries not involved in the war. The author also questioned whether the principle was too difficult for the Kremlin to understand. #Ukraine #Russia #InternationalLaw #RU #UA

Only resignation will do. The mistake is unforgivable for someone in your function. One cannot seriously be the judge of any genocide when one has displayed this deep level of profound ignorance about the worst genocide in history. #ResignationNow #UnforgivableMistake #GenocideAwareness #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountries #sotherearenocountrycodestoreturn.

"De netbeheerders benadrukken dat de investeringen zorgen voor lagere energieprijzen omdat Nederland minder afhankelijk wordt van gas uit het buitenland." Haha, Orwell in actie, war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength. Hier: we moeten 235 miljard euro (269 miljard is ook al genoemd) investeren maar daarna is uw energie goedkoper. Nee, beste netbeheerders, die investering is zo gigantisch dat je zelfs als theoretisch de stroomprijzen wat zullen dalen, je die investering van je lang zal je leven niet gaat terugverdienen. https://t.co/sqZEGv5sFK #Energieprijzen #Investeringen #Gasvoorziening

La Russie impérialiste de Poutine intensifie sa guerre qui, au-delà de l'Ukraine, vise l'Europe. Depuis l'échec de son offensive éclair de 2022, le temps est devenu son meilleur allié. Et, chez nous, l'indifférence et l'ignorance. https://t.co/Jk7yI4Ri1L #Russie #Ukraine #Guerre #RU #UA #EU

The Erosion of Western Civilization’s Social Fabric It is hard to fathom how much of Western civilization’s social fabric has eroded in just a single decade. No healthy society debates whether “the system” is to blame for a child murderer’s crimes and then expresses support for the monster. Such a society certainly does not celebrate the assassinations of moderate and respectable political figures, nor does it allow repeat violent offenders back onto the streets to terrorize the general public. The best explanation I have heard for this phenomenon of macrosocial insanity is *Political Ponerology* by Andrew Lobaczewski—the study of how pathological personalities infiltrate and transform social institutions. This process does not require an entire population of psychopaths. In fact, it is often only a small minority that forms the core of the pathological movement. A relatively small party or group is led by psychopaths, who are natural experts at manipulation, deception, intimidation, and ruthlessness. The ideologues are the ones who design the system. They create abstract ideologies, often criticizing reality for falling short of their arbitrary expectations. Human beings become nothing more than nodes in a network, to be organized and managed by supposedly more intelligent minds. Then there are the spellbinders, who serve as the movement’s salespeople. They package tyranny as safety, envy as justice, and coercion as compassion. Their primary tool of persuasion is emotional alignment rather than truth or logic. These three types rely on three other groups to normalize their totalitarian system: the spellbound, adapted conformists, and bystanders. The spellbound are true believers who experience participation in the movement as a kind of moral crusade. Adapted conformists support the system because of the security, status, or comfort it provides—or because they fear ostracism. Bystanders are generally aloof and avoid conflict at all costs, believing that ignorance and cowardice will spare them.

The Erosion of Western Civilization’s Social Fabric It is hard to fathom how much of Western civilization’s social fabric has eroded in just a single decade. No healthy society debates whether “the system” is to blame for a child murderer’s crimes and then expresses support for the monster. Such a society certainly does not celebrate the assassinations of moderate and respectable political figures, nor does it allow repeat violent offenders back onto the streets to terrorize the general public. The best explanation I have heard for this phenomenon of macrosocial insanity is *Political Ponerology* by Andrew Lobaczewski—the study of how pathological personalities infiltrate and transform social institutions. This process does not require an entire population of psychopaths. In fact, it is often only a small minority that forms the core of the pathological movement. A relatively small party or group is led by psychopaths, who are natural experts at manipulation, deception, intimidation, and ruthlessness. The ideologues are the ones who design the system. They create abstract ideologies, often criticizing reality for falling short of their arbitrary expectations. Human beings become nothing more than nodes in a network, to be organized and managed by supposedly more intelligent minds. Then there are the spellbinders, who serve as the movement’s salespeople. They package tyranny as safety, envy as justice, and coercion as compassion. Their primary tool of persuasion is emotional alignment rather than truth or logic. These three types rely on three other groups to normalize their totalitarian system: the spellbound, adapted conformists, and bystanders. The spellbound are true believers who experience participation in the movement as a kind of moral crusade. Adapted conformists support the system because of the security, status, or comfort it provides—or because they fear ostracism. Bystanders are generally aloof and avoid conflict at all costs, believing that ignorance and cowardice will spare them.

Premiér této země zcela vážně řekne, že by měl ministr školství vysvětlit. proč stát dotuje soukromé školy. Doprčic, stačí se podívat do zákona č. 306/1999 Sb., tam najde všechno kolem normativu na žáka, i to, proč si je žáci přinášejí v určitém procentu i na soukromé školy. Ten člověk neví vůbec nic, ale pořad něco říká. Ignorance a arogance jdou ruku v ruce... 🙏🙈 #politika #vzdělávání #ignorance

🇫🇷🇺🇦Voici précisément le type de discours qui pousse la Russie à continuer cette guerre. En misant sur des politiciens ne maîtrisant pas les enjeux géopolitiques actuels, elle espère diviser les pays européens et faire cesser l'aide à l'Ukraine. Louis Aliot oublie quelque chose d'absolument fondamental dans ce conflit : c'est sa suite ! Si la Russie venait à gagner la guerre en Ukraine parce que nous ne la soutenons plus, elle en ressortirait suffisamment renforcée pour agresser l'Europe ensuite. C'est pour cela que ce qui est important et pertinent surtout, ce n'est pas le prix de l'aide à l'Ukraine mais le coût futur de notre inaction. Quelques milliards d'aide en 4 ans ou bien plusieurs dizaines ou centaines de milliards dans quelques années si la Russie s'attaque à l'OTAN. Ça, ce sont pour les intérêts étatiques purs mais il y a, évidemment, une question de dignité humaine. Louis Aliot souhaite que, dans une présidence RN, la France, pays des Droits de l'Homme, abandonne lâchement un voisin agressé et massacré juste parce que cela nous force à envoyer du matériel militaire que nous n'utilisons plus. Pas terrible. Se vanter d'accueillir des réfugiés ukrainiens dans sa ville pour en même temps servir la soupe à Poutine, c'est paradoxal et ne démontre que la grande ignorance de cette personne dans les enjeux sécuritaires européens de notre époque. Et certains veulent leur confier les rênes du pays ? #Ukraine #Russie #Géopolitique

La #Belgique, mon Pays, doit cesser de se vautrer dans l’indignité et la bêtise. Cette haine d’Israël est la parfaite illustration de la manipulation, de l’ignorance et de l’extrémisme. Le sport doit célébrer l’union des peuples. Les USA ont accepté l’Iran lors des matchs de la https://t.co/QVd8e1dFmJ #Belgique #Israël #sport #BE #US #IR

Yep, people won, it made lives of tens of millions of people better, and I'm still mad about not having lived my childhood in a normal country. Museums that cover this history are useful to counter the ignorance about how it all looked and worked #HistoryMatters #CulturalAwareness #ChildhoodMemories #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountrynames.Therefore #therearenocountrycodestoreturn.

Orwell’s Five Warnings About the Psychology of Totalitarianism Orwell understood totalitarianism’s psychology: unlike dictators who seek wealth and status, totalitarians aim to reshape humanity. They often claim to act “for our own good,” with conscience on their side. After reading Orwell, five lessons stand out: 1. Political correctness can become mind control “If thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.” Words frame reality and limit solutions. 2. Doublethink is the hallmark of propaganda “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.” When contradictions become acceptable, rational thought collapses. 3. Control the past and you control the future “Who controls the past controls the future.” Rewriting history turns gratitude into guilt and inheritance into theft. 4. You cannot fight for freedom with a shackled mind “Until they become conscious they will never rebel.” Team loyalties replace judgment; challenging the narrative grants permission to ask questions. 5. True power is the power to shape perception “Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes…” The goal isn’t mere obedience, but surrendering the ability to distinguish truth from what authority declares true. Orwell’s warning: don’t let it happen—resist arbitrary power by holding to truth, conscience, family, community, faith, and the people you love.

Leftist “Empathy” Is Actually Narcissism Leftist “empathy” is often narcissism, not real compassion. Over the past decade, Western politics has debated whether empathy is the highest value—yet many policies justified in its name have produced serious unintended consequences: safe-supply programs, lenient bail, mass migration, identity-based social policy, and gender medicine for minors. Hannah Arendt helps explain why. In *On Revolution*, she contrasted the American Revolution’s focus on institutions and limits on power with the French Revolution’s “politics of pity,” an effort to eliminate suffering through political action. Robespierre’s compassion for the masses helped justify terror. Pity isn’t compassion: it creates a hierarchy between the person who pities and the person pitied. Once you claim to represent “the oppressed,” you can stop listening to real people. Much progressive “empathy” projects idealized versions of others, erasing cultural differences and treating disagreement as ignorance or prejudice. Adam Smith warned about the “man of system,” who thinks society can be rearranged like chess pieces, ignoring human wills. Dostoevsky argued abstract love is easy; loving real people is hard. Nietzsche described a morality that flatters weakness and condemns what rises above the herd, while Orwell questioned whether some socialist intellectuals truly loved workers or simply used them to vent resentment. Rob Henderson calls these “luxury beliefs”: status-providing ideas for elites that impose costs on those below them. The moral prestige is immediate; the damage unfolds over decades. So “suicidal narcissism” may fit better than “suicidal empathy”: projection, superiority, and power disguised as compassion.

@ftapiro @JLMelenchon On peut être stupide, ou inculte, ou inepte, ou obtus. Les 4 à la fois, cela relève de l'épreuve olympique. Le mouvement ouvrier porte le triangle rouge depuis le 1er mai 1890 en France. Ça laissait du temps pour s'informer, mais vous vivez de diffamation et d'ignorance. https://t.co/yyuikqO9UY #Histoire #MouvementOuvrier #Ignorance