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Furkan Yildirim wrote that the US Treasury could auction fewer long-term government bonds as early as November and possibly discontinue the 20-year term altogether. According to Yildirim, Citigroup expects Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to announce a $3 billion reduction in auctions for 20- and 30-year bonds each on November 4. The financing gap is to be closed with government securities maturing within a year at the latest. The department may also ask large banks next week whether pension funds now prefer bonds from Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet to those of the state. The 20-year bond was reintroduced in 2020 after a 34-year hiatus and now offers nearly 5.7 percent interest, more than any other US maturity. At the end of 2020, its yield was just under 1.5 percent. At the same time, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and SpaceX had already issued dollar bonds amounting to more than $180 billion in 2026; according to Yildirim, Amazon's bonds extend to 2076. According to asset manager TwentyFour, which Yildirim cited, Japanese investors are now receiving enough interest at home to invest their money there. Citi strategist Jason Williams wrote that pension funds may currently be more inclined than usual to invest in long-term corporate bonds of good quality. However, BNP Paribas strategists doubted that smaller auctions would reduce the government's financing costs. Yildirim also pointed out that the yield on 10-year US bonds serves as a basis for mortgages and many other loans, and Bessent had referred to it as an important measure of his success. With an annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion, the debt burden continues to grow as competition for long-term buyers increases. #Finanzen #Anleihen #Wirtschaft (translated)

The US inflation has fallen overnight by 0.3 percentage points. Not a single price has decreased because of this. The calculation method has changed, retroactively to 2021. For July, the US statistics agency previously reported a core inflation of 3.3% (excluding energy and food), now it shows 3.0%. For August, 3.0% was recorded, although economists had expected 3.3%. On paper, this is a clear decline. Three areas were adjusted: software, legal consulting, and asset management. The last one best illustrates the problem. An advisor charges a 1% fee on your portfolio. If the stock market rises by 20%, you pay 20% more in dollars, even though he has never raised his rate. Statistics had previously counted this as a price increase. In May, this inflation was at 21.6%; using the new method, it would be 14.3%. The Canadian bank RBC estimates that the new method alone pushes core inflation down by about 0.18 percentage points, mainly due to software. A large part of today’s decline is thus purely a matter of calculation. Even on Wall Street, the number is read cautiously. BNY strategist John Velis advises treating any softer value after the adjustment as a statistical correction. His conclusion: less noise, the same amount of inflation. Why this matters: Two weeks ago, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 to 3.75% to 4.00%. 16 out of 18 members expect another increase this year. This inflation figure is what decides that and it impacts credit rates, mortgages, and the direction of stocks and Bitcoin. On paper, inflation has decreased today. At the supermarket checkout, however, no one notices anything. If you are interested in such macro insights and they help you, feel free to interact with the post. 🧡 #Inflation #USMarkt #Wirtschaft (translated)

Alan Greenspan, de invloedrijke voorzitter van de Amerikaanse centrale bank (1987-2006) en aanhanger van libertarisme, overleed op honderdjarige leeftijd en werd herinnerd voor zijn macht en zijn controversiële afkeer van marktingrijpen, die culmineerde in kritiek na de hypothekencrisis van 2008. #AlanGreenspan #Fed #hypothekencrisis

Donald Trump hat Bill Pulte, einen Immobilienmanager und als Kampfhund des Präsidenten bezeichneten Vertrauten, zum Nationalen Geheimdienstkoordinator ernannt, nachdem Tulsi Gabbard zurückgetreten ist, was inmitten von Kritik der Demokraten und aufgrund von Pultes umstrittener politischer Rolle und seiner Verbindungen zu Hypothekenbanken für Diskussionen sorgt. #BillPulte #DonaldTrump #Geheimdienste